Dubai Telegraph - As Trump returns, African exporters torn between hope and horror

EUR -
AED 3.826681
AFN 70.327616
ALL 98.192804
AMD 406.067937
ANG 1.879076
AOA 951.190259
ARS 1045.840133
AUD 1.601828
AWG 1.877897
AZN 1.775245
BAM 1.957546
BBD 2.105077
BDT 124.589901
BGN 1.956284
BHD 0.392592
BIF 3016.094951
BMD 1.041829
BND 1.405287
BOB 7.204528
BRL 6.043693
BSD 1.04263
BTN 88.005286
BWP 14.243906
BYN 3.412124
BYR 20419.848375
BZD 2.101624
CAD 1.456946
CDF 2991.091432
CHF 0.930994
CLF 0.037254
CLP 1027.952249
CNY 7.54601
CNH 7.562783
COP 4605.144632
CRC 531.073558
CUC 1.041829
CUP 27.608468
CVE 110.75048
CZK 25.343745
DJF 185.15426
DKK 7.457312
DOP 62.978972
DZD 139.891631
EGP 51.726992
ERN 15.627435
ETB 128.155793
FJD 2.371151
FKP 0.822333
GBP 0.831468
GEL 2.855018
GGP 0.822333
GHS 16.464915
GIP 0.822333
GMD 73.970229
GNF 8992.026458
GTQ 8.048177
GYD 218.127645
HKD 8.109446
HNL 26.28575
HRK 7.431636
HTG 136.86204
HUF 411.533277
IDR 16610.452733
ILS 3.863061
IMP 0.822333
INR 87.968134
IQD 1365.316903
IRR 43834.955489
ISK 145.523076
JEP 0.822333
JMD 166.09811
JOD 0.738765
JPY 161.242873
KES 134.920816
KGS 90.122166
KHR 4220.449639
KMF 492.268155
KPW 937.645704
KRW 1463.259646
KWD 0.320727
KYD 0.868887
KZT 520.591707
LAK 22878.565176
LBP 93347.878651
LKR 303.450587
LRD 187.529583
LSL 18.888757
LTL 3.076251
LVL 0.630192
LYD 5.089375
MAD 10.49591
MDL 19.017231
MGA 4865.341785
MKD 61.54739
MMK 3383.819949
MNT 3540.134882
MOP 8.359474
MRU 41.574227
MUR 48.810083
MVR 16.10707
MWK 1807.573672
MXN 21.281613
MYR 4.654932
MZN 66.583684
NAD 18.888753
NGN 1767.675143
NIO 38.287608
NOK 11.531328
NPR 140.808938
NZD 1.78585
OMR 0.401107
PAB 1.042655
PEN 3.952739
PGK 4.194144
PHP 61.404399
PKR 289.423952
PLN 4.338074
PYG 8139.257775
QAR 3.792783
RON 4.976404
RSD 117.038068
RUB 108.671879
RWF 1427.305728
SAR 3.911717
SBD 8.734231
SCR 14.879628
SDG 626.663972
SEK 11.501974
SGD 1.402827
SHP 0.822333
SLE 23.68116
SLL 21846.638123
SOS 595.409088
SRD 36.978718
STD 21563.75683
SVC 9.123047
SYP 2617.626467
SZL 18.888745
THB 35.91223
TJS 11.103861
TMT 3.646401
TND 3.313541
TOP 2.440072
TRY 36.018972
TTD 7.081314
TWD 33.946439
TZS 2771.265486
UAH 43.133048
UGX 3852.435216
USD 1.041829
UYU 44.339112
UZS 13366.666402
VES 48.506662
VND 26482.251319
VUV 123.688032
WST 2.90836
XAF 656.558208
XAG 0.033274
XAU 0.000384
XCD 2.815595
XDR 0.793126
XOF 650.625955
XPF 119.331742
YER 260.379151
ZAR 18.862746
ZMK 9377.71492
ZMW 28.802098
ZWL 335.468513
  • RBGPF

    59.2400

    59.24

    +100%

  • BCC

    3.4200

    143.78

    +2.38%

  • GSK

    0.2600

    33.96

    +0.77%

  • RELX

    0.9900

    46.75

    +2.12%

  • CMSC

    0.0320

    24.672

    +0.13%

  • RYCEF

    -0.0100

    6.79

    -0.15%

  • AZN

    1.3700

    65.63

    +2.09%

  • SCS

    0.2300

    13.27

    +1.73%

  • RIO

    -0.2200

    62.35

    -0.35%

  • CMSD

    0.0150

    24.46

    +0.06%

  • NGG

    1.0296

    63.11

    +1.63%

  • JRI

    -0.0200

    13.21

    -0.15%

  • BTI

    0.4000

    37.38

    +1.07%

  • VOD

    0.1323

    8.73

    +1.52%

  • BP

    0.2000

    29.72

    +0.67%

  • BCE

    0.0900

    26.77

    +0.34%

As Trump returns, African exporters torn between hope and horror
As Trump returns, African exporters torn between hope and horror / Photo: Phill Magakoe - AFP/File

As Trump returns, African exporters torn between hope and horror

Citrus growers in South Africa are among the businesses most nervous that duty-and-quota-free exports to the United States could be scrapped next year when Donald Trump takes office again.

Text size:

The fruits are among 1,800 products across 32 African countries benefitting from preferential market access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with companies in South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Ghana reaping the most dollars in profits.

But with president-elect Trump having vowed to impose at least a 10 percent tariff on all imports to the United States, there is no certainty that AGOA will be renewed.

Analysts say the legislation, passed in 2000 and set to expire next year, could be modified if not withdrawn altogether, with potential negative ramifications for companies and jobs across Africa.

"We need this competitive edge," Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), which also represents Zimbabwe and Swaziland-based orchards, told AFP.

"Should South Africa be removed from AGOA, thousands of rural jobs could be impacted, as well as over a billion rand ($55.5 million) in export revenue could be lost," he said.

One food producer in the Eastern Cape province told AFP that if AGOA were not renewed, it would "kill" their business.

The South African company, which asked to remain anonymous, said it employed more than 3,000 people and exported an average of 350 containers of sorbet products per year to the United States, where they are sold at a major retailer.

- Hope for the best -

Another industry that could feel the heat if AGOA is shelved is the automotive sector, though some companies are betting that US consumers might accept higher prices.

"I don't foresee any major changes in the buying patterns of Americans around the products that we supply," said Ken Manners, managing director at SP Metal Forgings Group, a South African company that exports vehicle parts to the United States.

Even if tariffs were imposed, "it certainly wouldn't be life-changing in terms of our ability to supply competitively," he told AFP.

"The product base that we supply in the US is very difficult to source anywhere else, so ultimately even if the US put higher tariffs, the US consumer would end up paying for it."

Whether AGOA is renewed or not, it should not have much impact on the broader South African economy, analysts said, though companies should still prepare for changes.

"On the whole of the economy we're not even talking one percent," said Johannesburg-based economist Dawie Roodt.

But "in an environment where the economy is hardly growing or growing very weakly, every little bit helps and adds up", he said.

In any case, "it won't be business as usual," said Ronak Gopaldas of the London-based consultancy Signal Risk.

"The reality is that Trump and his economic policies are unpredictable, volatile and erratic. You don't know how far on the extreme he's going to go."

"So I would say an effective strategy is to expect the worst and hope for the best," he said.

- 'AGOA-lite' -

Kenyan and Ghanaian companies also benefit significantly from AGOA, especially in the textile industry.

Mukhisa Kituyi, a Kenyan politician who served as secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, said he believed the next US administration could push for a renegotiated AGOA rather than a withdrawal.

"What America has been wanting... is restricting what they call third country rules of origin," Kituyi told AFP.

For example, this would prevent companies from bringing textiles from China or India, stitching them in Africa, and then selling them to America as African clothes.

"If they tighten the rules of origin, particularly on textiles and cars –- as Trump is obsessed with the manufacturing of particular cars -– we can see a diluted AGOA-lite going forward," Kituyi said.

Another question mark surrounds exports of critical minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Angola.

While the products are not eligible under AGOA, central African countries have received particular attention and investment under President Joe Biden.

"Are these relations going to persist... or will we see a walking back, a radical overhaul, on some of the gains made?" Gopaldas said.

Trump will probably "ignore Africa", according to Roodt, unless countries "get his attention for good or bad reasons".

A determining factor likely to influence trade relations is whether countries are seen as geopolitically aligned with the United States.

This could be an issue for a number of African governments that have shown support towards Russia and China or criticised Israel.

Having accused Israel of "genocide" in Gaza at the UN's top court, South Africa in particular will have to "walk a tightrope," Gopaldas said, "if the US becomes more explicit about being 'with us or against us'."

I.Menon--DT